Last Chance to Get the Amex Hilton Surpass with a 125k Sign-Up Bonus

The Points Guy has an exclusive 125k point offer for the Amex Hilton Surpass card. Since the Amex Hilton Surpass will be converted to the new Amex Hilton Ascend in January 2018, should you get the Surpass now?

The answer: It depends. The offer can either be good or bad depending on your circumstances. 

Reasons to get the Hilton Surpass

There are two main reasons to get the card right now:

1. You really need the points for an upcoming redemption
2. If you think American Express will keep the Surpass as a separate product and not convert the cards to the Ascend

The 125k offer is a historic high for points, but it's not the best offer I've seen. The best offer for the Surpass was the 100k points + free night. 

125k Offer

  • 125k points x 0.5 cents per point = $625 in value
  • Net value = $625 - $75 annual fee = $550 net

100k Points + 1 Free Night Offer

  • 100k points x 0.5 cpp = $500 in value
  • x = 1 free weekend night
  • Net value = $500 + x - $75 - $75 = $350 + x

X = free weekend night:

  • If x = < $200, first offer is better
  • If x = $200, you're impartial
  • If x - > $200, second offer is better

Reasons not to get the Hilton Surpass

American Express has a once in a lifetime rule where you can only receive a sign-up bonus for a product once. If the Surpass gets converted to the Ascend, you'll never receive a bonus for the Ascend. 

More credit issuers seem to launch new credit cards with attractive sign-up bonuses and then lower them later. The offer for the Ascend might be relatively high at launch.