American Express Enforces Signup Bonus Restrictions with New Qualification Tool

We recently covered how American Express added new language to their terms regarding welcome offers. 

The Points Guy has reported that American Express is enforcing welcome offer restrictions with a new tool. A module will pop up if Amex does not want to grant you a welcome bonus due to too many accounts, signup bonuses received, or introductory APR offers.

The following message will appear if you do not qualify:

"[name] based on your history with American Express welcome offers, introductory APR offers, or the number of cards you have opened and closed, you are not eligible to receive this welcome offer.
We have not yet performed a credit check. Would you still like to proceed?
[Continue and Submit]
[Cancel Application]
Note: Your application will be considered withdrawn if no action is taken on this page."

I tried to apply for a card myself to test the tool (I already have the Hilton Honors card), and the pop up below appeared. 

Hilton Example.PNG

If you cancel the application, a hard inquiry will not be made. I think the new tool is useful because it tells people if they qualify for a new bonus before a hard inquiry, as opposed to being in the dark.

Data points needed

The big question is what the rule is so that people can plan ahead. It's possible that the tool is still in trial  mode, so there's not a set rule in place, but maybe we can draw some conclusions with data points.

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